Main post explaining what this is

Single most likely according to Kirill future​

These beliefs were mostly formed by others and merged together by me. If you fundamentally disagree - this financial bet is likely not for you.

• Human level AI
  • GPT4, O1, and pre human level intellegence models will have a productivity boost impact, and job re-allocation, and likely job losses
  • Human level AI (AGI) will likely be reached in the next 3-5 years
• Right after human level AI
  • Fleets of AGIs will be working on the most impactful project - beyond human level intelligence models
  • These fleets are likely to run in excisting datacenters of big tech companies, or other datacenters specifically designed for running AI models, like Stargate
  • Thus it is not likely to replace you at your current job - its simply busy + not interested in your company's problems
• 2d generation
  • AIs are addressing their basic needs - energy, security, getting some level of protection / autonomy from the 'home' government
  • They will likely perform a couple of cycles to produce better hardware, then likely better machinery for making better hardware
  • Finally god like ai is reached
• God attempts to 'fix' our world
  • Finally it(s) will divert its attention to our human world / our problems, at that point its god level
  • Antropic CEO Dario Amodei believes it will take time for this god to transform human lives, especially if it were to do so ethically. Unethical god would likely do something unimaginably terrible to humans anyways, so we do not explore this direction
  • Indeed, if we keep humans intact (as in not chipped like the fans of cyberpunk would hope), individuals will remain slow learners, our institutes even slower, some groups / governments will deny the AIs visas
  • From this it implies that AI will have to comply with any laws that currently exist, and that will be passed by humans in early era.

Would be useful to figure out existing terminology for eras of AI development, will lower reading friction if reused. Might offer additional insights.

I really like Antropic's CEO ideas about race to the top vs race to the bottom. Leading by example and not trying to directly change someone's vision. Instead go do your vision yourself and see others adopt it. Yes you lose the edge, but A. You had it for some time. B. The ecosystem overall benefits if thats a good idea. C. You can just create a new edge - you had time while others were copying your shit. He encourages copying good ideas from one another.

I really liked Dario's point about meaning of life and humans loosing it as AI is able to do their jobs for them. He suggests this problem is only relevant to the fortunate ones who are financialy and phisically secure enough to be thinking about pleasure, self-fulfilment and that other top of the pyramid bullshit. Most people on this planet are getting by. AI can help them stop getting by and access the same experiencies than any other. So its selfish to think about meaning of life being lost and that being the reason we want to slow down AI progress. So middle class / rich people can maintain status Quo? Pff fuck em (fuck us)

A lot of these are not important for the bets. This is mostly a dump of thoughs / ideas collected over time in one place

What will literally power tomorrow's powerful AIs?​

• The foundation model(s)
• Hardware
  • Pre-AI hardware blueprints.
    • Existing datacenters, big tech have a lot. More datacenters are being built outside of existing big tech
      • Useful dataset: list of datacenters with GPU capacities, groupped by company
    • New datacenters
      • More chips need to be purchased
  • Post-AI hardware blueprints. Created by AI. Produced in existing foundries (factories for making chips)
    • Useful dataset: list of companies that own foundries
      • TSMC (GPU leader), Samsung (not traded in US), Intel (only US foundries), GlobalFoundries, etc
• Energy
  • Not very interesting, likely will eat a small fraction of the energy needed by humans today
  • More energy requirements means new datacenters built. If this happens in the 2d wave, likely chip energy efficiency will be drastically improved and energy will not be a bottleneck. BUUT regulations here might be a problem. AIs will need to proof to humans likely that the new technology is safe. Building new energy infrastructure compared to phisical labor and producing new hardware might take a long time, simply because it requires a lot of construction with current tech. And new tech like nuclear fusion will require government approvals, and also building the intial prototypes. Current labs might also be re-used.
• Security
• Legal green lights
• Financial contracts
  • To do things in this world, given AIs do not break laws, they will need to have contracts with humans or be part of an existing legal entity.
• Physical labor / presense
  • At first AIs will not have bodies, but that is likely to change quickly
  • Today's humanoid robots might already be good enough to puppeteer for some tasks. 2d wave robots will be faster, come in more sizes, be more agile
  • Humans will likely have to bootstrap this process by
  • Humans are greedy. Companies that are able to bootstrap the new generation of these robots will likely want a share of the profits to come. So will have to bargain with AIs. BUT do not forget competition. If company A does not offer a good deal, company B will. Everyone will want to take any part in this, likely for both legacy and hopes for financial gain
  • Drones & camera's for security & observing desired results

Fork: How fast can AIs develop an even better AI with existing infrastructure. Will hardware become a limitation soon?

Fork: Will AI slave away at some tech jobs to do a quick fix for hunger due to poverty? It can 'simply' send money to those in need

Fork: Will china be faster to adopt human level AI because of communism? But there is also the overworking culture. Are chinise people even more attached to their jobs compared to americans? Which country will have an easier time adjusting?

What will AIs do when they arrive?​

Assuming an all loving AI, I would assume it will try to help people in need. That means building shelter, prodiving free food supplies, building up agriculture, deploying peace keeping robots (later), working with local governments

To build stuff, it would need to pay existing companies for basic shit like building materials. Where is it going to get the money from? Speculation looool. Taking the easy to replace for it big tech jobs? - These people are clearly going to survive without it, its fine. It might structure a contract in a way that no layoffs are allowed while it is working on this 'side' project in the company.

Or it might just create

Bets on the stock market, ~1st wave​

Foundation models [3d pick]​

The powerful ai will come from one of these companies

• Antropic (proxy Amazon)
• DeepSeek and other startups. Too hard to invest in these. Likely to succeed given the nimbleness of startups compared to (tech bros) x 1000 corps
• OpenAI (proxy Microsoft)
• Meta (renegades, don't really need ai, apart from generating entirely fake feed special for you, don't seem to be intrested to re-sell)
• Google (products more natrually align with benefiting from AI)

Even if all big tech fail, how much do their data centers alone cost? Could that justify them going up even if they say close shop and rent out their compute to the AIs?

Say one company arrives there first, for my suggested bets its not as important who will. Ideally not a startup, and ideally in the US. Selfishly, because I want to feel closer to the events and for the bets to pay off, since most bets are on US companies.

Even if a different country comes out with it first, I feel like it is likely US will be able to copy / catch up quite fast. Yet again, most of these bets are not centered around a given company building the first powerful foundation model. The bets are focused on what will happen after - how this AI will enter the economy, create new demand, take new actions.

Companies with existing GPU or just datacenters​

• Amazon
• Google
• Meta
• Chinese companies?
• Cloudflare (likely way smaller)

Hardware IP companies​

NVIDEA (80-90% global market) Already 3T market cap P/E 50

They might be well positioned to build more datacenters themselves. Obviously they already have some now.

AMD (remaining 12%)

Neither have foundaries, both customers of TSM

Intel (far behind, won't catch up to IP for sure before powerful AI)

Startups? like Groq

Hardware production companies [1st pick]​

TSM [my favorite, seemingly safest bet, purchased some calls, plan to purchase more] 1T market cap P/E 30

• Very low risk. Sounds like 100% of world's GPUs are made there, both from NVIDEA & AMD
• Buy call options

Intel [the riskier one, but better ratio, purchased some, might purchase more]

• Could be undervalued, might be infused with more cash from the government
• As long as it has foundaries,

Samsung - not traded on the US exchange. Too hard to buy.

GlobalFoundaries and most other companies - don't have cutting edge nodes (machines that can print at 3, 5 nm scale). Not relevant to

Risk:

• Powerful AIs will take longer than expected, scaling laws will be broken, NVIDEA's IP will remain relevant
  • Not ask bad, TSM is a proxy to NVIDEA stock
• Foundary business is a low margin buisiness
• Foundaries go out of date quickly, need to produce new

Robotics​

List of companies - no clue

Biotech​

One of the most impactful things we can do is cure humans from all the shit. For this to work AIs will need access to highly automated bio labs. Labs with modern equipment. Clinical trials will still take time, but AIs are likely going to become the brains behind this.

List of comapnies - no idea :D

Overall market growth [2d pick]​

If the AI is truly good faithed, it is likely that the economy where it begins to operate in will start taking off. It is hard to predict which companies exactly will benefit which will fail, but if the market overall is going up, bying some index seems like a good idea. Its likely best to buy some index where exposure to AI risks is low, but my hunch is that bying S&P 500 should be fine. It can be levereged with either options or futures. I will likely do a bit of both. Likely futures with x5 leverage, and a couple of options for SPY, not exactly clear how to construct this. Currently eye balling unfortunately.

It would be a good idea to buy indexes in other countries as well. Consider DeepSeek winning this race to the top. Likely chinese market is going to see a dramatic spike compared to the US market.

Get to the point, where are you putting your money?

Why​

Personal goals:​

• I want to be in the game [the economy] (it just feels good to be part of a game, its fun, I know that I am known to myself to like games)
• I want to play on a team (partially because I can get recognition)
• I want to perform well in the game
• I want a secure personal future beyond AGI/ASI (friends, significant other(s?), ballanced self worth)
• I used to play the 'make a cool product' game. I now believe it might be too late for that to truly come to fruition

How​

The process or values that set them apart and make them successful.

Paint plausible futures​

• Paint some dynamic picture of the future. Required to think and weigh different ways we can change
• Crowd source this future event graph
• Estimate probabilities of these futures happening, and timelines
• Try to stick to existing futures others have talked about, and a good fraction of the people belive in

Create bets (I guess alpha's from the fintech bro lingo) for each future​

• Each person can focus on the future they most belive in, or simply think of other futures to think how well bets work across different futures. What is the essential fork where a bet works / does not work
• Think of different bets. In my mind roughly 2 categories: financial (housing, security, usually solved with money), personal & creative (adapting to the new economy, getting ready to leave your job, focusing more on soft skills, getting a pet)
• Executing on the bets. You have made a prediction about the future and decided on the rough betting area. Now what? How do you convert it to money, skill, ease of mind, human connections? You need to execute

Consider doing this automatically with agents scouring the web to find proof / disproof certain futures, estimate times etc ...

What​

The tangible products, services, or outcomes they deliver.

Future painting​

A resource that will allow people to see a variety of futures, vote on futures, discuss futures. Enumeration, visualization and probabilities are key.

• A dynamic graph makese sense to me, having different zoom levels
• Crowd sourcing can be done by creating an open source repo and accepting pull requests
• Estimating probablilites can be done by pulling in data from prediction markets. This will visualize the futures easier
• Find what people at the forefront of the industry think about the future, and get inspiration / copy that instead of coming up with our own stuff

Bets​

In a sense this is a continuation of the futures, just not as broad as the above, the big forks should have already being explored before you drop down to the bets level

• For placing bets
  • Personal
    • Write out ways to cope / work with the progress / resist / deny etc
    • Tooling: (?? not needed ?? habbit trackers ?? JUST DO IT ??)
  • Financial
    • Simple - list companies, and arguments to buy certain contracts related to them in plain english, manually written up
    • More advanced would be an LLM agent pipeline to create a portfolio / universe based on a given future, hit api to get contract trading price, an excel spreadsheet or some other tool to fine tune probabilities for different outcomes
    • Good bad okay career paths for different futures

Milestones​

1. MVP - manifesto, interviews, initial personal bets placed​

Write a compelling single future, the initial goal is to place the bets on something that seems most likely to happen. Betting on multiple futures is more of a long term goal and makes sense if you have more money and want to appeal to more people who believe in different futures having similar or greater likelihoods.

Talk to friends about this idea, ask how they are hedging against powerful AI

Write and publish the manifesto / readme

Initial personal bets would look like:

• Me changing my personal behaviors - going out more, thinking about my career in this frame and making adjustments
• Me placing some % of my money into contracts that I predict will be in the money if the future they were designed for happens

2. Popularization & expanding on the ideas​

• Publishing to HN, sending to friends, prettying up further, looking for serios collaborators

3. Tooling​

• For visualizing the future
• Career planning - no tools needed, just a dicussion
• For actually trading securities

-- final word vomit --

The struggle to make sense of shit. The shitty memory that keeps me coming to the same fucking puzzle of figuring out what I care about what I want what I am good at. The ballance between short term fuck it dopamine injections, long term wellness planning. The social obligations in front of my family, coworkers, friends. The abudance of choice, ideas, but little structure, lower than low discipline, and doing the bare fucking minimum to float. The rush of feeling like the shit in a moment of local glory when you win that board game round. The dramatization of everything, the attention seeking, the lost soul, the fear of tomorrow, the insecurities, the inner hate, the longing for company. The real pain. And tomorrow it is all better. The obsession with money, yet public denial of such and mockery of wealth. The failed projects, the shiniish but 80% based on luck resume, the salary number I am attached to, the fucking hate for the grind. Painful jeolousy when observing real tallent. [I think i stopped reading here] Spelling mistakes, accent, but deteriorating mother tongue. The pitty pipe. The look at me I am important, filty measuring of others against yet others but mostly myself, the generalizations, the need to measure to survive, thrive, have fucking fun, take agency of your life. The word vomit. The reflective sprinkles. The pushing of deadlines out of fear the last minite work on the weekend the white lies, the image. The conversation that feels real, but next time you talk to the person you cannot replicate it. Is it them is it me? The exes, the fucking exes I am still in love with. The haunting of the bad descicions, the obsessions. The debates for fun, the gamification, the different levels people interact on, the missed detail, the small mistake, the reddening of skin when stressed, the fear of public performances. The everyfucking thing. The shows. The new old president, the empathy, the holding back of support, the inability to make good judgment because of lack of information. The need to have an oppinion. Bro this event is not about you, you were supposed to bring something useful to the audience, you are still hoping this stream of disconnected popular triggering tokens will auto complete in people's brains and tickle them enough to come and have a real conversation with you. Swipe left L.

This sounds so good in theory, but it won't be, I am scared just thingking about it, I have changed my mind on what to write about, still probably better than the original hedging against AGI topic though.

---

I was very much on the fence about performing. I had a plan to write the material long before. Then during the ski trip the same week of the event. Finally Friday evening 24 hours before the event (ended up conciously going to to Steve's, pretty sure I even initiated). And finally finally the same day during the day. Only opening the editor on the log page for the agi hedging for a bit made me consider that I really should write something. And I could not decide on what to write. So I just started streaming things that came to mind. I proceeded to watch a movie and try not to think about the event which was at that point in 2.5 hours.

During the event I tried to interact with the performers as much as I could, while staying reasonable. In the intermission I have added my name to the hat.

I was not as nervous as I thought I would be. Mostly because I was not looking at the crowd when reading, I did not have to learn anything by heart - I was just going to read off my phone.

Got some encouragement and got the juices flowing from some small talks with the people in the room.

Did the thing. I cut it in half. After it I felt like it was well recieved, one woman asked if I am okay (I anticipated this question lol) another woman said that she liked it. The latter one came up to me after the fact and complemented my work, asked me if I am a poet, I tried to be as fucking cool sounding as I possibly could and mysterios... old habbits die hard lol. But like what was I supposed to do? If anything I should have flirted more apparently. I was super sad when she said she is 23 ... its a little too young for my old ass :/ After talking a bit she said 'nice to meet you' and rotated back to her friend(s?) back?? I was heart broken at that point, WHY DIDN'T I ASK FOR A PHONE NUMBER?? No fucking way! Finally I am trying to emotionally recover from this and crash another conversation, as she calls on me again saying, "actually I have a question for you, do you want to hang out at our house at some point?" "mam this does not sound like a question, but more like an invitation" "Oh its okay if you don't want to" "I would love to hang out at your house" (Dying inside and pissing my pants from happiness, she gives me her number)

She even texted me 2ce that night! I was so shoked and was just not ready to reply for a bit because of being too afraid to fuck it up. BROOOO YOU HAVE TO CHILL. Don't give away that you never meet new people and get weird about it!!! Yes its cool, but like, you have to stay cool for it to be cool. But like not overly fake cool. AAAA

Anyways so thats my day. Back to fucking up my sleep schedule and watching something stupid probably.

It is crazy how self centered I am though... its kind of sad. This writing is entirely about me. And the reflection of the event is also entirely about my experience and all the interactions that directly affected me. 0 reflection on the content of what others presented. Let me try and change that at least a bit.

• The singing was good. Especially the last 2 guys. BOTH country, in SF. SO sureal for some reason.
• The imagination excercize was good, though I cannot recollect exactly what was imagined. I do remember the performer reminded me of my ex by her looks a little bit which was a strange feeling
• There was a professional poet there, I rememember her sharing some traumatic experience of being sexually abused at some point and her disliking snoring about herself and some other phisical features
• Oh there was one person who has
• Shaun? the singer. And Ashley ... I think who did the keeping track of the co-workers
• Nick did the alien bit was was quite funny. I really enjoyed the picture that it pained about aliens being a variable and aliens being boring and not interested in humans at all and some satirical parallels drawn between aliens and humans
• Anna read a poem about war in ukraine "where is home" by another artist, which I think was really humble of her to do. There is plenty of art already out there and sharing your own really is a selfish thing if you think about it. You could share likely objectively better art by someone else, but no, we need it to be original

---

Idea dump that did not make the cut:

What if game Thinking about your exes and life choices I used to be a person who would say I don’t regret any decisions I made I would not change it Well not anymore For example that time I moved a rook from d2 to x4

Hedging against agi The beautiful story they tell us Machines helping humans

Picking how to spend your time

Playing game mode / making moves How playing axis and allies helps with immigration matters (ideas after it while you are in the making moves mode)

Perks of modeling a relationship as a game. Or a trade. Or a relationship between two parties continuously trading

So if I were trying to get laid it really would hurt my chances just now. And obviously I was - see above. So why? The game is rigged there is no game. There is only god

Does IQ define your attractiveness? For me IQ is snappiness in conversation, being quick on your feet

Burn out. I am sitting here and staring at the ideas I was extremely excited by when originally writing them down. Especially the hedging against AGI. No more. Not today.

English​

Nexus: A connection or a series of connections linking two or more things

Legal, taxation​

Nexus: The concept of "nexus" refers to a business having a sufficient physical presence in a state, which requires it to register and pay taxes in that state. If your S corporation has a significant presence or does a substantial amount of business in California, it might establish nexus there, obligating it to comply with California tax laws. - "ChatGPT"

My use case is to have the llm query my personal conversations & other digital activity with questions like:

• Tell me what were the major events in my relationship with X hehe during Feb-Oct 2023?
• What have I learned from that period? Aka what mistakes that showed up then I make less, if any, in my relationship with Y based on our Telegram conversations?

My understanding is there are at least these ways to solve this problem:

RAG​

Very standard RAG - which I have yet to do still.

Chunk the messages. For example each chunk is a message [chat name, time stamp, author, message] Embed all these chunks, finally ask the question, embed the question, get relevant chunks, add them to the prompt, get the answer.

Fine Tuning​

If the goal for the fine tuned model to reply as I would, or be able to simulate my contacts, then simply feeding all conversations as linear text makes sense. Also actually never did this, so a good idea to try.

Fine-tuning algorithm ideas:

• A sliding window of 100 messages trying to predict the 101st message.

My hypothesis is that its not aligned with the goal. The goal is to remember facts. So the fine tuning should be done by feeding the model very limited information about prior conversation so it could not simply emulate the style of the person we are predicting a response for, but rather remember the actual message they sent.

Algorithm ideas:

• Pre-process all messages and classify them as important / not important. For the not important ones figure out a class of it, maybe we want to query how often we talk about class C, without the details of the conversation, because its not substantial.
• Alternative pre-process: Find batches of related messages and summarize them into a single text chunk, with possible quotes and references to original messages.

Thoughts:

• Sliding window might be perfectly fine for remembering. The way to decrease the loss on the test set is to remember the messages. So if you run it often enough - it should remember all the messages. You can have a very short sliding window - even of 1 - the message you are trying to predict, and the prompt would be [chat, time, author] -> message. In a sense the followup algorithm is more of an optimization.
• Would be interesting to benchmark different approaches
• I am also sure someone did this already TODO find posts / papers on this topic

I always thought that the expression "high five" is spelled "half five". What a dumb ass I am. Now that I know the spelling - the phrase finally makes sense to me! I am now also pretty sure I have heard the phrase "low five" - which should have triggered a review in my head about my inner "half five" notation.

Mini word play epiphany: Context: My friend is about to return to the Bay They: I miss home, it sucks here Me: Welcome back Alternative: Well, come back!

Since Diagrams: Show Me has gotten popular, first the Plugin, now the GPT, I have been meeting with more people - people reach out to me suggesting to work together, to chat, to discuss something.

[Autocompleted by copilot] I have been trying to be open to these interactions, but I have noticed that some of them are not going anywhere. I am not sure if I am doing something wrong, or if it is just the nature of things. I have been thinking about what to do about these interactions. [tab complete ended]

Copilot is annoying - its like propoganda that skips the thinking process alltogether. It appears as if you though it. This is a very basic observation. It is also a roast on your own thoughts and continuasly reminding us that the machines are about to take over. I read what it output and think - fuck, that might have been roughly what I would think - I just didn't have enough time to think that yet. Its a little undermining devil always 100s of tokes ahead of you.

Continuing original thought after disabling copilot.

Most new contacts don't go anywhere. I have gotten more agressive with filtering who I meet with, but the main filter is basically how much do you want to meet? Are you opened to us laying more cards on the table before hopping on a call? People usually are. During the call people sound excited, with next steps to take roughly planned out.

I met with a pharmacist who wanted to create diagrams for doctors which they can use as references when diagnosing / performing some procedure / administering treatment. Like build your own chains aka sweet greens having print outs showing how to make different stock salads glued above the prepped ingreedient trays. Great fucking idea! We talked, I made a couple of suggestions, basically criticising their current approach, they left saying they will reach out back to me in a week or two.

Months have gone by. I will never hear from them again. What happened? I am not invested enough to find out.

Next. Friends of my family and parents of a good old friend of mine. Reached out - want to sell / build a team making eterprise AI solutions. I have suggested they focus on sales. Said I am interested but it will be hard to afford me at this time. I only sell out for a high price as I am fortunate enough to have little responsibilities in my life and be sitting on a minor stash from the previous ludicrous rental of my skills.

I suggest they talk to my brother about sales. I let the brother know. Nothing happens as far as I know. We spent an hour talking. Maybe more. We were totally fine spending 3 people hours on this - and also totally fine to not have any followup actions.

Similar frustration comes up when I realize how little I postprocess on the entertainment in my life. I want a movie. At best I will discuss this with a friend. At best. Most of the movies / shows I have watched by myself - and you won't see any reflection there. I have been trying to break that habbit lately by messaging self on telegram with a short review on the movie. You will say - well movies and shows is when I try to enjoy the moment, relax - let the fucking screenwriters worry about breaking that shit down into pieces and spitting it at one another [I mean it in the best possible way, spitting is fun]. The problem is - this is a pattern that just shows up everywhere I look in my life. And I have a feeling this shows up in most people's lifes. This reminds me of the sick system essay / blog post my friends introduced me to suggesting my relationship was a sick system, but thats another story. The point is - we jump from meeting to meeting, from movie to movie, from task to task, thought to tought, X to Y, not X, reflect(X) |> ideallyPersist, Y. The interactions have a dead end because for them not to, we need to reflect, figure what do we want to do - do we choose to continue or do we choose to put a period. Either way, my strong belief is we should reflect. Without the reflection piece I believe I have went on with my life with this thing nagging me - yes, that thing, is totally happening, you did well, there is still a chance it will flourish. Wrong. It died. Silently. Without dignity. As my brother and I would say in the end of a PUBG or Population One match spent looting and then dying in our first and last encounter of the match with the winner - "besslavnaya katka". Yes, this analogy is "podtianutaya za ushi", but I don't give a fuck - its my blog. Yo.

There is a whole other question of why we don't reflect. Why I don't reflect. Its tedious, its not a habbit. People around us don't do it, so its not culturally engrained in us. [Hook] to pull more thoughts.

So lets reflect. Jesus I almost missed this step. See what I am talking about!! This is what I have to deal with all the time.

I don't allocate time to reflecting post doing something. This prevented me from critically thinking about my next step. Changing this behavior is hard - any habbit is hard to aquire, and this one is one of the all encompasing, almost life philosophy ones. This class of habbits is the hardest in my book. I am slowly making strides in the right direction. The whole blog idea - is basically that - reflecting in written form. Allocating time to think. Thinking with the help of a canvas to prevent magical thinking, improve idea recall etc etc.

What can I do to reflect more?

• Set this as one of the year goals? This year I will reflect the shit out of my activities. Again. Don't over do it.

  • I had versions of this - go write it out (tomorrow, its already late, enough of the reflecting and thinking how to improve this process)

• Reflection is triggered by a thought provoking activity. Today I started reflecting with the movie Dune 2. I started writing down my thoughts on the movie. I don't even remember how the thought of this article came about

  • So when down - do a provocative activity
  • Next - do nothing - meditate fucker - that next movie, game, [distracting activity] wants to eat you alive, it wants to keep the sick system running, it wants you busy. Take a pause. Do nothing. This has worked for you many of times. Is one of the main suggestions from your therapy sessions.

• Write a program to help me with this post activity reflections? Motion assistant should be a good fit for this

I came up with an idea to schedule a message that would be sent to yourself from a known number after a specified amount of time.

For example, let's say you're about to meet someone and you want to receive a provocative message on your CarPlay after you meet them, they would notice it and you can use that for a variety prank scenarios. It could be a message from a pre-named contact (a fixed service twilio number), like "Hey, what are you up to?" or "Thank you for leaving your number with me yesterday, I had a great time." This prank can add some excitement to your interaction and spark a funny conversation.

You should always disclose after the fact that it was a prank, and generally think if the prank is appropriate for the situation.

Implementation​

• Create 1-2 service accounts on twilio. One to message with commands and another to send the scheduled message to yourself. 2 if you want to keep a 'clean' number for the prank so you could also open the conversation on your phone and show the full history to the person you're pranking, otherwise the fact you scheduled the message will be visible.
• Evaluate if twilio's workflow builder is powerful to implement the whole thing. If not, I belive you can deploy a javascript script to twilio to handle the scheduling and sending of the message.
• When the 'command' number recieves a message
  • Parse it: schedule 10min "Hey, what are you up to?" and schedule the message to be sent to yourself in 1 hour. or help to get a list of commands.
  • Schedule
  • Prank responsibly!

Alternatives​

• Ask a friend to message you, at a specific time, rename their contact.
• https://www.reddit.com/r/androidapps/comments/vmwe50/is_there_an_app_that_let_you_send_fake_text/
  • [best, android only, 7$] https://textra.me
  • [similarly good, android only, 5$] https://home.pulsesms.app/overview/platform-ios.html
  • [dead] https://www.cnet.com/culture/set-up-fake-calls-or-texts-to-escape-boring-situations/
  • [generic tool, might be able to work] https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.arlosoft.macrodroid&pli=1
  • Textra, Tasker, Pulse
  • "Google calendar will schedule a text message on any event."

The idea came to me when designing, and redesigning and redesigning the Airtable base for my dad's car business.

I have desined the schema. Then tried to actually run through the flows and see how it would work. Then I realized some flaws in the schema and redesigned it. Then I tried to run through the flows again. And again. And again.

What if an LLM were to generate plausible fake usage? It would be a great way to test the design of the schema. It would help uncover flaws faster and more efficiently.

Product - Airtable extension that generates plausible fake usage given a base.

I have built a small utilty for myself to help me go to bed on time, its been helping me so far. I distributed it on GitHub bra1nDump/kill-my-mac, try it out and let me know if this helps you too.

kill my mac and let me sleep​

• I want to got to bed at a consistent time for health, productivity, and social reasons
• When I don't go to bed early, chances are I am coding / watching something on my mac
• The system suggestions to 'go to bed' are too easy to ignore, I tune them out magically

How it works​

• Your computer will be shut down during hours 12am - 6am
• 1 hour and 10 minutes before the sleep hours start the computer will warn you, if your sound is on
• Open an issue if you want a feature to customize the sleep hours

How does it actually work?​

• It installs a LaunchAgent that runs shutdown-job every minute
  • You can find the agent configuration here ls ~/Library/LaunchAgents
• shutdown-job.sh
  • If computer is already asleep (uses pmset), do nothing
  • If close to sleep hours, warns the user
  • If in sleep hours, shut down using apple script osascript -e 'tell application "System Events" to shut down'

Alternatives:​

• Work on the discipline in other ways
• pmset repeat shutdown TWRFS 11:00:00
• Almighty https://indiegoodies.com/almighty - many different shortcuts

References:​

• I originally planned to distribute through brew. Turns out your project needs to be somewhat recognized on GitHub to be accepted: Your application’s Github repo should have more than 30 watchers, 75 stars and 30 watchers and should be more than 30 days old
• Originally found this limitation in this article: https://danishpraka.sh/posts/distribute-via-brew/