my AGI stock bets, and the future they assume

2025-01-27

Main post explaining what this is

single most likely according to Kirill future

These beliefs were mostly formed by others and merged together by me. If you fundamentally disagree - this financial bet is likely not for you.

Would be useful to figure out existing terminology for eras of AI development, will lower reading friction if reused. Might offer additional insights.

I really like Antropic's CEO ideas about race to the top vs race to the bottom. Leading by example and not trying to directly change someone's vision. Instead go do your vision yourself and see others adopt it. Yes you lose the edge, but A. You had it for some time. B. The ecosystem overall benefits if thats a good idea. C. You can just create a new edge - you had time while others were copying your shit. He encourages copying good ideas from one another.

I really liked Dario's point about meaning of life and humans loosing it as AI is able to do their jobs for them. He suggests this problem is only relevant to the fortunate ones who are financialy and phisically secure enough to be thinking about pleasure, self-fulfilment and that other top of the pyramid bullshit. Most people on this planet are getting by. AI can help them stop getting by and access the same experiencies than any other. So its selfish to think about meaning of life being lost and that being the reason we want to slow down AI progress. So middle class / rich people can maintain status Quo? Pff fuck em (fuck us)

A lot of these are not important for the bets. This is mostly a dump of thoughs / ideas collected over time in one place

what will literally power tomorrow's powerful AIs?

Fork: How fast can AIs develop an even better AI with existing infrastructure. Will hardware become a limitation soon?

Fork: Will AI slave away at some tech jobs to do a quick fix for hunger due to poverty? It can 'simply' send money to those in need

Fork: Will china be faster to adopt human level AI because of communism? But there is also the overworking culture. Are chinise people even more attached to their jobs compared to americans? Which country will have an easier time adjusting?

what will AIs do when they arrive?

Assuming an all loving AI, I would assume it will try to help people in need. That means building shelter, prodiving free food supplies, building up agriculture, deploying peace keeping robots (later), working with local governments

To build stuff, it would need to pay existing companies for basic shit like building materials. Where is it going to get the money from? Speculation looool. Taking the easy to replace for it big tech jobs? - These people are clearly going to survive without it, its fine. It might structure a contract in a way that no layoffs are allowed while it is working on this 'side' project in the company.

Or it might just create

bets on the stock market, ~1st wave

foundation models [3d pick]

The powerful ai will come from one of these companies

Even if all big tech fail, how much do their data centers alone cost? Could that justify them going up even if they say close shop and rent out their compute to the AIs?

Say one company arrives there first, for my suggested bets its not as important who will. Ideally not a startup, and ideally in the US. Selfishly, because I want to feel closer to the events and for the bets to pay off, since most bets are on US companies.

Even if a different country comes out with it first, I feel like it is likely US will be able to copy / catch up quite fast. Yet again, most of these bets are not centered around a given company building the first powerful foundation model. The bets are focused on what will happen after - how this AI will enter the economy, create new demand, take new actions.

companies with existing GPU or just datacenters

hardware IP companies

NVIDEA (80-90% global market) Already 3T market cap P/E 50

They might be well positioned to build more datacenters themselves. Obviously they already have some now.

AMD (remaining 12%)

Neither have foundaries, both customers of TSM

Intel (far behind, won't catch up to IP for sure before powerful AI)

Startups? like Groq

hardware production companies [1st pick]

TSM [my favorite, seemingly safest bet, purchased some calls, plan to purchase more] 1T market cap P/E 30

Intel [the riskier one, but better ratio, purchased some, might purchase more]

Samsung - not traded on the US exchange. Too hard to buy.

GlobalFoundaries and most other companies - don't have cutting edge nodes (machines that can print at 3, 5 nm scale). Not relevant to

Risk:

robotics

List of companies - no clue

biotech

One of the most impactful things we can do is cure humans from all the shit. For this to work AIs will need access to highly automated bio labs. Labs with modern equipment. Clinical trials will still take time, but AIs are likely going to become the brains behind this.

List of comapnies - no idea :D

overall market growth [2d pick]

If the AI is truly good faithed, it is likely that the economy where it begins to operate in will start taking off. It is hard to predict which companies exactly will benefit which will fail, but if the market overall is going up, bying some index seems like a good idea. Its likely best to buy some index where exposure to AI risks is low, but my hunch is that bying S&P 500 should be fine. It can be levereged with either options or futures. I will likely do a bit of both. Likely futures with x5 leverage, and a couple of options for SPY, not exactly clear how to construct this. Currently eye balling unfortunately.

It would be a good idea to buy indexes in other countries as well. Consider DeepSeek winning this race to the top. Likely chinese market is going to see a dramatic spike compared to the US market.