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AGI Preparedness Manual

· 4 min read

Get to the point, where are you putting your money?

Why​

Personal goals:​

  • I want to be in the game [the economy] (it just feels good to be part of a game, its fun, I know that I am known to myself to like games)
  • I want to play on a team (partially because I can get recognition)
  • I want to perform well in the game
  • I want a secure personal future beyond AGI/ASI (friends, significant other(s?), ballanced self worth)
  • I used to play the 'make a cool product' game. I now believe it might be too late for that to truly come to fruition

How​

The process or values that set them apart and make them successful.

Paint plausible futures​

  • Paint some dynamic picture of the future. Required to think and weigh different ways we can change
  • Crowd source this future event graph
  • Estimate probabilities of these futures happening, and timelines
  • Try to stick to existing futures others have talked about, and a good fraction of the people belive in

Create bets (I guess alpha's from the fintech bro lingo) for each future​

  • Each person can focus on the future they most belive in, or simply think of other futures to think how well bets work across different futures. What is the essential fork where a bet works / does not work
  • Think of different bets. In my mind roughly 2 categories: financial (housing, security, usually solved with money), personal & creative (adapting to the new economy, getting ready to leave your job, focusing more on soft skills, getting a pet)
  • Executing on the bets. You have made a prediction about the future and decided on the rough betting area. Now what? How do you convert it to money, skill, ease of mind, human connections? You need to execute

Consider doing this automatically with agents scouring the web to find proof / disproof certain futures, estimate times etc ...

What​

The tangible products, services, or outcomes they deliver.

Future painting​

A resource that will allow people to see a variety of futures, vote on futures, discuss futures. Enumeration, visualization and probabilities are key.

  • A dynamic graph makese sense to me, having different zoom levels
  • Crowd sourcing can be done by creating an open source repo and accepting pull requests
  • Estimating probablilites can be done by pulling in data from prediction markets. This will visualize the futures easier
  • Find what people at the forefront of the industry think about the future, and get inspiration / copy that instead of coming up with our own stuff

Bets​

In a sense this is a continuation of the futures, just not as broad as the above, the big forks should have already being explored before you drop down to the bets level

  • For placing bets
    • Personal
      • Write out ways to cope / work with the progress / resist / deny etc
      • Tooling: (?? not needed ?? habbit trackers ?? JUST DO IT ??)
    • Financial
      • Simple - list companies, and arguments to buy certain contracts related to them in plain english, manually written up
      • More advanced would be an LLM agent pipeline to create a portfolio / universe based on a given future, hit api to get contract trading price, an excel spreadsheet or some other tool to fine tune probabilities for different outcomes
      • Good bad okay career paths for different futures

Milestones​

1. MVP - manifesto, interviews, initial personal bets placed​

Write a compelling single future, the initial goal is to place the bets on something that seems most likely to happen. Betting on multiple futures is more of a long term goal and makes sense if you have more money and want to appeal to more people who believe in different futures having similar or greater likelihoods.

Talk to friends about this idea, ask how they are hedging against powerful AI

Write and publish the manifesto / readme

Initial personal bets would look like:

  • Me changing my personal behaviors - going out more, thinking about my career in this frame and making adjustments
  • Me placing some % of my money into contracts that I predict will be in the money if the future they were designed for happens

2. Popularization & expanding on the ideas​

  • Publishing to HN, sending to friends, prettying up further, looking for serios collaborators

3. Tooling​

  • For visualizing the future
  • Career planning - no tools needed, just a dicussion
  • For actually trading securities